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Why Ukraine’s Fate May Depend on Beijing

How China’s covert economic and military support has become vital to sustaining Moscow’s war machine

Beijing’s support for Russia has become indispensable to Moscow’s war effort. As the Politburo strengthens its role, Western leaders can no longer afford to view China as a neutral actor in Russia’s war against Ukraine.

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Trump is De-Russifying Europe’s Energy Market – Who Benefits?

Democratic and Economic Security Outlook 2025: 3-9 November

As Prime Minister Viktor Orbán prepares to visit the White House and plead for mercy, US sanctions are forcing Lukoil into a fire-sale of its European refineries. Poland’s state-owned Orlen is poised to capture Hungary’s diesel market, generating billions while hastening the EU’s de-Russification push. Meanwhile, the V4 is fracturing...

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What Babiš means for the EU

Czech coalition arithmetic will centre on Babiš, but Brussels should expect pragmatism over rupture

Andrej Babiš has reclaimed the centre of Czech politics. His ANO 2011 topped the vote but must still assemble a majority, forcing messy deals that will shape Prague’s stance on Ukraine, the Green Deal and media freedom. But Brussels should expect tactical obstruction, not a complete rupture.

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Civil Society Is the Weak Element of European Defence Posture

The Forgotten Front

In the shadow of Russia’s grinding war in Ukraine, Europe’s leaders have rediscovered the art of sabre-rattling. But how credible or sustainable it will be without the full support of the democratic bedrock – myriads of civil society actors across the Union? The upcoming four-year electoral cycle will tell, and...

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Hot Air Balloons vs Real Economic Warfare

Democratic and Economic Security Outlook 2025: 27 October - 2 November

Are we in a geoeconomic game of chicken now? Russia and China bring Belarusian pocket knives (ekhm, hot air balloons) against a coordinated set of United States and European Union sanctions. As Moscow and Beijing reel from the measures, which are cutting Russian oil revenues and prompting threats of rare-earth...

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Trump and Putin Call the Shots. Will Europe Wag Its Tail? – OPINION

Why we must pull ourselves together – now.

Europeans have been far too polite for far too long. At Turnberry, Ursula von der Leyen played the courteous guest while Donald Trump slapped on tariffs and pocketed promises of energy and arms contracts. Washington and Moscow now chat over Ukraine’s fate as if Europe is a side dish. Our...

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Slovakia Turns the Page on Russian Fossil Fuels – COMMENTARY

How gas supply diversification brings Slovakia closer to its neighbours

As the European Union (EU) commits to phasing out Russian fossil fuels by the end of 2027, energy security has become a strategic and geopolitical imperative. The ongoing war in Ukraine has only underscored what was already clear: Russia is not a reliable energy partner, having weaponised its fossil fuel...

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Trump’s Hopes for Peace To Be Sliced Like Budapest Salami

Democratic and Economic Security Outlook 2025: 20-27 October

As news of a Budapest summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin stir global anticipation, the Washington Post credits American strength for bringing Russia to the negotiating table. Yet, the prospect of such talks evokes a chilling echo of Soviet-era salami tactics mastered by Moscow agents in control of Hungary...

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Europe’s Economic Security Starts With Trade, EU Enlargement and Smart Partnerships

Why the EU cannot wait on Washington or Beijing and should bank on its neighbours and the global market instead

Europe’s economic strength and resilience will come from EU enlargement and partnerships with Ukraine, Mercosur and Latin America. To discover more perspectives on the European economic security imperative, read the recap of the latest edition of the Europe Future Forum that took place in Warsaw this September.

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Russian Threats Rise. How Does CEE Fund Its Security?

Q3 2025 Policy Brief

As the security threat from Russia continues to rise, countries are investing more in defence. This is an opportunity for growth, but also a burden at a time when many CEE economies already have high budget deficits – and as Europe faces more economic coercion, from friend and foe.

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How CEE MEPs Voted On Ursula No-Confidence

Democratic and Economic Security Outlook 2025: 13-19 October

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) showed a stark split in support for Ursula von der Leyen, with 103 MEPs from the region backing her in a no-confidence vote, while 61 voted for her removal and many remained undecided, exemplifying a deep political divide within the EU also in the region.

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How Orbán’s Anti-Ukraine Crusade Fuels Hungary’s Election War Machine

Anti-Ukraine sentiment and war threats are exploited for political gain in Hungary

As Hungary gears up for the 2026 elections, Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz party is doubling down on anti-Ukraine rhetoric, painting Kyiv as a threat to national sovereignty and economic stability. By demonising Ukraine and linking rival Péter Magyar to foreign plots, Orbán’s propaganda machine serves Moscow’s interests while deepening Hungary’s isolation...

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Democracies at War. War on Democracies

The war in Europe should be understood not merely as an external event factor engaging select democratic partners in support for Ukraine, but also a deliberate subversion from within against all EU democracies and the collective fabric of the Union. The ‘Democracies at War. War on Democracies’ report tells the story of European democratic ambitions and why the EU’s military buildup needs strengthening democratic foundations across the block to succeed.

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